FTC Solar ($FTCI): Backlog Conversion, New Supply Agreements, And A Path To EBITDA Inflection With Multi Bagger Potential.
FTC Solar’s recent Q4 results suggest the business may be approaching a real and significant inflection: backlog has reached ~$491 million. Now generating positive net bookings, management says quarterly breakeven is around $50 million to $60 million of revenue. I believe that in the next 2 years, yearly EBITDA will be in the $70-$80m range and will continue to grow- see my model below. My model does not reflect the multi hundred MW projects per week that the company is bidding on. FTCI’s current market cap is under $60m- without significant debt, small capex, and few taxes being paid- so EBITDA strongly correlates to earnings. We know that Q1 2026 will not have good results. Q2 will likely not be great either. But I expect the party to start in terms of results in the back half of the year. With a significant revenue ramp starting in the next 2-3 months.
New supply agreements continue to stack up with over 9GW already signed. New management has taken the helm with industry pillar Yann Brandt as CEO, Kent James, and Wes Fuller leading sales. They are well connected in the industry and seem to be making waves. Efficiencies and time savings from the company’s easy to install trackers are now well documented and bragged about in press releases by customers. Perhaps most importantly- recent interviews point to significant commercial momentum. This is the case not only in Tegus interviews from last year, but interviews with FTC management, and quotes from their customers. I believe that the stock price reflects little of this. While the company’s balance sheet is still the main risk, recent financing and contract wins make it no longer the dominant part of the story. There are so many positives to look at for a full picture and I believe the balance sheet is primed to not only support the stock, but also the business and its growth. Furthermore, CEO Yann Brandt stated on the company’s most recent conference call that they are bidding on 300mw to 400mw per week of tracker sales. At .10/watt, these are significant deals. I believe these are projects where some will supply near term business that could produce revenue in the next 2 quarters, before I expect significantly most of the company’s current bookings to produce.
FTC, while still being valued as a distressed solar equipment name has an operating story that has significantly changed. The company just reported its strongest adjusted EBITDA performance in years- just missing breakeven. Backlog remains substantial, recently announced supply agreements are not yet fully reflected in contracted backlog, and management now sounds focused on market share gains (becoming a top 3 tracker supplier), backlog utilization, and profitability rather than simple survival. I believe that should the company need capital on its path to backlog conversion, that it has many levers to pull other than substantial dilution and can use its working capital effectively. Scenarios with project based financing come to mind, as well as managing accounts receivable.
The company’s competitors appear focused on trashing FTC’s balance sheet and covenant risk (resolved with this 8K), rather than the impressive product the company offers. I believe that FTC’s competitors have an inferior product. Over time, this intellectual property and performance dynamic could shift the tracker market with FTC’s “better mousetrap.” FTC has a strong relationship with Cleanhill to fund its growth. I believe their current balance sheet offers some other levers to pull, if needed. This creates a setup where modest revenue conversion and product mix improvement could move FTC well beyond break-even… which no one seems to expect right now, because when reporting Q4 2025 results, Q1 and Q2 2026 do not sound like they will bear much fruit. Q1 guidance sounds like it will be underwhelming due to delays in last year’s political uncertainties related to solar- which in part, caused the stock to retreat from the $12 range to the mid $3 range.
I believe this has created a very compelling entrypoint for the stock. We have to skate where the puck is going to be, so to speak.
Before the detail of the story, here are some important links to reference and monitor for updates in the future.
FTC Fireside Chat at the Roth Conference, with CEO Yann Brandt
Q4 Conference Call and Form 10K
Solar Wakeup (CEO Brandt’s Blog)
Lazard’s report on the competitiveness of solar and storage in the energy market. The historic narrative that solar is not economical seems to be incorrect.
FTC Solar’s LinkedIn
Yann Brandt’s LinkedIn
What changed this quarter?
Q4 2025 revenue was $32.9 million, up 26% sequentially and 148.9% year over year.
GAAP gross margin reached 21.0%, non-GAAP gross margin reached 23.4%, and adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to just $0.3 million. This excluded a prior year tariff accrual.
Full-year 2025 revenue rose to $99.7 million, up 111% year over year.
The contracted backlog stood at ~$491 million, with management noting this figure excludes at least two newly announced agreements that are not yet contracted.
Management said more than 9 GW of master supply agreements were added over the last year and expects utilization to accelerate in 2026. Most of these are not reflected in the company’s backlog.
FTC got on 4 more vendor lists, bringing them up to 8 of the top 10 EPCs that can use their trackers. These lists are hugely important for revenue generation.
Bidding on more projects (weekly) and getting positive net bookings. Growing backlog in the quarter by $29m more than revenue.
New 1 GW agreement with an unidentified leading developer of wind and solar farms. This is over 3 years and they are currently deep in the analysis and design phase of numerous projects across the US.
800+mw supply agreement in South Africa- revenues start mid year 2026.
FTC expanded its relationship with Strata Clean Energy by another 1,000 MW and extended the term to five years, on top of their prior 500 MW agreement. This shows that FTC’s current customers love their products. This agreement is for both 1P trackers, as well as higher margin 2P trackers, of which FTC is the market leader. Prior to now, FTC only supplied 2P to Strata- this expansion is a huge endorsement for the quality of FTC’s 1P product.
The company is pushing beyond its historical 2P niche into the larger 1P tracker market, which management framed as a significant share-gain opportunity. This improved product mix cannot be overstated enough.
Management highlighted installation efficiency (video link) as a differentiator, citing time-trial performance around 0.053 man-hours per module. In the recent Roth conference fireside chat, Brandt stated (at 11:30) that this has been proven on site at a 300 MW project. These savings are not theoretical. Compare this to comments that large EPCs often cite around 0.09 man hours per module, with a good crew, using other trackers. FTC is also shooting for an additional 20% time savings. EPCs are noticing, and posting about this on LinkedIn.
Robotics for solar installs is getting investment and traction. FTC believes that their tracker system is uniquely positioned to work well with robotics.
The Alpha Steel acquisition was described as a way to give customers clear domestic content and FEOC compliance visibility. Management also said 45X economics are incorporated into pricing through its manufacturing structure. There are possibilities for the facility to take on business outside of just FTC, giving more revenue possibilities.
Management is intent on becoming one of the top 3 tracker companies. This implicitly means they believe they can grow revenue to surpass Array ($1.1B mkt cap), and compete closer to NextPower ($17B mkt cap) and Gamechange Solar (private)- the current top 2 providers of trackers.
The backlog is real, but the more important point is conversion. As a matter of federal law, conversion is HUGELY incentivized to happen… SOON.
Historically, the solar industry has had large backlogs that have been slow to convert. Sometimes they wouldn’t convert at all. This was especially the case for FTC. Currently, their backlog stands at ~$491m. So, why are things different with this backlog?
First, as part of the Big Beautiful Bill, the 48E solar tax credits of 30% of the value of the project expire earlier than were scheduled in the Inflation Reduction Act. Under the new language, construction of a solar project (which has loose guidance, for the definition of construction) must begin on or before July 4, 2026 to recieve the credits. A developer has until the end of 2030 to place the field in service, provided they meet safe harbor considerations from the Treasury. The project can also be placed in service before December 31, 2027, if the construction starts AFTER July of 2026, and still receive the credits.
Additionally, the 45X tax credits still stand for domestic manufacture of many parts- FTC’s ownership of Alpha Steel will greatly benefit from this. They also do not have to worry about foreign ownership issues, now that they bought out their partners and own the entire entity.
For the second part of the governmental issues, the Trump Administration had been delaying solar and wind permits through regulatory approvals- starting to consider what alternatives to solar could produce by using the same footprint. This even involved going so far as requiring Interior Secretary Doug Burgum to personally sign off on all Federal Permits for solar fields on government land. Had nothing happened to stop this- one might think that it would be the death of solar in America…
Enter the need for permitting reform! More or less, with the massive projected growth of data centers and AI, rising utility costs, and uncertainty in the energy markets- the US will need significant grid upgrades, power generation to be constructed, and for permits to be issued much more quickly. If energy prices soar, then voters will get angry at their representatives and vote them out. Members of the Trump administration who were trying to hurt solar seem to now realize that this is not a good look to voters. While permitting reform talks between republicans and democrats broke down last year (despite legislation passing in the house) because of the administration's hostility to solar and off shore wind projects, democrats have re-opened talks and are optimistic given the positive and more understanding change in administrative handling of clean energy projects. It seems that a bi-partisan solution could be reached sometime this year. Any development on this front should bode very well for solar companies and I think is not priced into FTC’s share price. See below for a tweet from my favorite energy reporter, Joshua Siegel, on X, regarding permitting reform talks. James Bikales is also a great follow to monitor developments in Washington regarding energy policy.
So… with all this background, I think that the backlog is not only real, but that there should be a significant revenue pull forward for it over the coming years to get the full effect of the 48E tax credits. These are huge incentives for developers. Normally, a pull forward would be kind of a “so so” development. However, I believe that an improving market for solar materials (panels are getting cheaper), power rates that are increasing, and most specifically- demand for gas generators is so high, that the industry literally cannot keep up with demand. Pricing for the components is soaring, and timelines to develop the plants are pushed out from 24 months to 5 years. GE and Westinghouse are backed up until at least 2029 for materials. See the below screen shot for some of the effects.
Solar has almost none of these problems with pricing of materials, cost of goods, and development timelines. Panels are coming down in price and becoming more efficient all the time. Just look at the insane decline since 1975. Keep in mind that these numbers are adjusted for inflation!
Even in just the past decade or so, panel costs have come down by nearly ⅔. This will be further helped by First Solar (FSLR) opening up more manufacturing facilities in the US.
The bottom line is that lots of solar projects are happening all over the country. Like these. Additionally, storage project pricing has declined by about 20% in the last year. This is an incredible set up for solar because it is now very economic to build and very profitable to capture solar generation in the middle of the day when power rates can go negative, store the power, and then sell it later in the evening when rates soar. This has created even more demand for solar in California.
Why FTC Solar may be taking share.
First- what is a solar tracker? They are motorized torque tubes that solar panels are mounted on that change the tilt of the panels- essentially turning them into a sunflower that is always directed at the sun. This raises the efficiency of a solar panel big time. The added efficiency allows developers to make the land space more efficient. Also, the trackers allow the panels to become more vertical in inclement weather so that hail storms or high wind situations do not destroy them. This protects a 30 year asset. With FTC specifically, the company offers SUNPATH software to help calculate the best way to increase power generation and keep the panels safe.
Now that we understand that a tracker turns a panel into a sunflower, let's talk about the types of trackers. Historically, FTC has only been a 2P tracker provider, rather the 1P and 2P provider that it has been for the last few years. They dominate the 2P space and are regarded as the industry standard for that product. I think that their lack of a 1P product hurt their backlog conversion as it just was not regularly used. They now have a fantastic 1P solution. The industry has seen a shift to 1P due to the emerging tech and costs- generally, 2P is used on more difficult soil conditions, agrivoltaics applications, or irregular site layouts for solar, but they have a larger profile due to the stacked modules. 1P has historically been the default technology. 1P generally takes to windy conditions better, because there is only one panel on top of a torque tube, vs 2 with 2P, making 1P act less like a “sail” in the wind. FTC is widely recognized as the industry standard for 2P. Here is an article that explains more.
Install time is incredible with FTC. Data centers are taking construction workers from solar field installations- making time savings for installs critically important. See this video for how quickly the trackers can be installed, with panels.
Additionally, the FTC product has terrain following features, rather than having 2 different tracker styles that other companies have. Brandt, while talking at the Roth conference, stated that their unified tracking platform allows FTC to install effectively on mixed terrain sites. Furthermore, historically 50% of the market required a single row slew drive system, rather than a lot of actuators. Going forward, it appears 70% of the market will use this slew drive system. FTC’s trackers use a slew drive system- so, their product is now where the market is going, rather than where it has been. Per Brandt’s fireside chat at the Roth conference, FTC is one of the 2 companies that has a slew drive system with independent row architecture. This is a big deal. The company has posted a compelling pitch on LinkedIn. In this Roth conference fireside chat, Brandt talks about this system at the 9 minute mark.
Even if FTC fails to take market share, the tracker industry is growing like crazy- with some expecting worldwide revenues to be $32.43 billion in 2033. This is a 15% growth rate for the industry… If FTC can capture just 5% of that, it would give them more than >$1.6B of annual revenue and the stock would be off to the races. Ultimately, I think they will be able to do more than 5% of the market.
The profitability bridge is probably shorter than the market thinks!
Management said quarterly breakeven is roughly $50 million to $60 million of revenue.
Q4 was already close to breakeven at $32.9 million of revenue, which management attributed partly to margin mix and geography.
Revenue growth is skewed towards the back half of the year. The market seems to think it will never deliver.
Signing MSAs both domestic AND abroad.
The off take market for projects is extremely healthy- and while a fair number of projects are in need of permitting, the regulated market with off takes can move much quicker. This could very well pull additional revenue forward for FTC.
If management is right that breakeven sits in the $50 million to $60 million quarterly revenue range, the move from small loss to meaningful profitability does not require insane revenue assumptions… It only requires backlog/MSA conversion and substandard margins compared to the industry average- which the company seems like it will have no issues in beating.
A recent modification to lender covenants regarding FTC’s senior debt, also give some credence to this thinking since the amended agreement requires quarterly revenue minimums of $25 million for Q2 2026, $50 million for Q3 2026, and $75 million for Q4 2026. I have trouble thinking that the company would have agreed to these terms had they not been confident they would meet them.
Management has options for funding this growth- it has a whole lot of working capital not just in cash, but in more than $50m in accounts receivable- as these receivables come in from project completions, the company can finance substantial growth even without customer deposits. Furthermore, the company has borrowing capacity with Cleanhill Capital Partners from the agreement they struck last year. I am not worried about growth capital in the least.
The balance sheet has been fortified and management has additional options.
Cash was $21.1 million at year-end 2025 and working capital was about $29.5 million.
The March 2026 amendment waived the purchase-order covenant issue and pushed that covenant’s application out until the quarter ending March 31, 2027.
FTC Solar still owes $2.5 million in May 2026 and $5.0 million in September 2026 after repaying $2.5 million in March.
The company retains roughly $9 million of ATM capacity and could also file an amendment to their S3 to increase that capacity. FTC could also request a second delayed-draw tranche of up to $37.5 million with Cleanhill. Historically, they have been disciplined with the issuance of stock.
Management has already said it used the ATM opportunistically. In Q4 2025, they raised around $5m in cash by issuing shares just under $10. I do NOT expect them to raise capital from share issuance at current or anything close to these levels. Especially given the prospects for the company.
Why is the market still so pessimistic?!
The stock is still priced like a company whose only story is financing risk. I believe that the company has a decent shot of not further diluting shareholders unless the market re-rates the stock and they can raise capital opportunistically. The company’s capital cycle of receiving deposits from customers that exceed the amount to get tracker construction going can be a big deal. They also have over $50m in accounts receivable that can come in. Lastly, there could be project level financing that would help with capital for projects, should they need it.
The operating data now shows commercial progress: better margins, near-breakeven EBITDA, larger EPC access, new MSAs, and clearer product positioning.
If just part of the non-contracted announced pipeline converts and 2026 utilization improves, investor perception can change quickly because the starting equity value is still very small. Right now, it sits under $60m.
The market is simply not listening to the conference calls where CEO Brandt is indicating significant signings, MSA extensions, and the like, are likely coming.
I don’t believe that anyone has actually penciled in what revenue looks like going forward, based just on the press releases the company has put out for MSAs and the like.
The market doesn’t get that projects in backlog are moving forward, such as the one in Butler County, Nebraska being built by Sandhills Energy for 231MW. I estimate this should be providing FTC with ~$23m of revenue. Additionally, Sandhills has another 350MW project that is finalizing now.
Insider Incentives.
Insiders own a large amount of the company- and have shown a willingness to buy in the past. Often at prices that we are currently trading at. One director owns over 2 million shares of stock, and the board collectively owns ~21% of the equity. 2 different lenders and outside shareholders own significant amounts as well, which is also very compelling. This seems to indicate that there is a strong belief the company will do very well. The float is relatively tight and that can make for some interesting dynamics. Not many companies have nearly this good of an ownership structure.
There have been some recent sales by executives but it was disclosed that they have been for tax reasons from grants. It doesn’t seem like the sales indicate anyone inside the company is bearish on the stock.
Additionally, CEO Yann Brandt has a large amount of RSUs that vest from $50 all the way up to $100/share (amounts of $5, $8, and $10 in this exhibit are changed to reflect the reverse share split last year).
When you add all of this up, I think the company is highly incentivized to communicate wins sooner, rather than later to the market. Catalysts could be happening at any time. I think that there is a decent chance of insiders buying once a buy window opens for them.
Valuation, per my model:
KEEP IN MIND… In this model, I am not adding in future contract signings. This is just the business that we can reasonably expect, right now. This is why the revenue numbers fall in year 3. I DO NOT expect revenues to actually fall.
Bear Case: $0
The Trump administration reverses its new found lack of hostility to solar thanks to permitting reform talks, projects continue getting delayed indefinitely, the backlog never converts, the company continues diluting, and eventually dies.
I do not think this is likely.
Mild Bear Case: ~$3.50
Backlog converts gradually, liquidity remains tight, dilution continues, and the stock keeps its valuation with more shares outstanding, as investors gain confidence the business is viable, so the stock kinda trudges along where it is. People just sort of soak up the additional shares…
Base Case: ~$7
None of the bookings for the company or supply agreements start producing revenue until Q2, and the market assigns a 3x multiple. The company kind of trudges along without raising capital, but also doesn’t do anything interesting going forward… I think this is a very gloomy outlook- especially for a base case.
Bull Case: ~$12
Quarterly revenue reaches management’s breakeven range, margins remain healthy, more MSAs convert into backlog, and the balance sheet overhang eases enough for the market to value FTC Solar as a credible share-gaining tracker supplier rather than a distressed capital structure. Or, the revenue comes in as my sheet expects, and the market assigns a 5x multiple to it because maybe the solar layout doesn’t look as rosy as I think it does. Or maybe the market won’t view this as the IP play that I think it should?
Very Bullish Case: ~$24
The market assigns a 10x multiple to the EBITDA the deals that we know about produce, and they do so in the timeline I think they do. New deals emerge in the future as continuations of the current agreements. Solar outlook looks decent as data centers need more power generation, and natural gas plants can not get built quick enough to support the amount of AI that the country needs to stay competitive with China.
Mega Bullish Case: ~$37
If backlog conversion is strong, commercial wins continue, covenant pressure is resolved through execution rather than emergency financing, and the market begins capitalizing the company on a much larger future revenue base. At today’s price, that would imply a several-hundred-million-dollar equity value even before potential dilution. The company would likely be announcing more deals, contract wins, MSAs and the like. They would displace Array as the 3rd leading tracker manufacturer. For reference- the current market cap of Array is $1.1 billion, and they have an interesting capital structure that makes their enterprise value even more. Even at this high share price- FTC’s EV would be nowhere close to where Array currently stands.
I am personally in this very bullish camp.
Financial model notes:
I made a sliding scale for margins that increase with various revenue metrics. Then, I took the contracted backlog and signed MSAs, estimated from public info when I think the projects will start, as well as estimate the value of the contracts, using .10/watt as a revenue target (though, this can vary from deal to deal). The sheet divides up the revenue of each contract over the various time frames the deals are set to last, and incorporates any delay for start of construction that the press releases indicate will happen. From that revenue spread, the sheet calculates total revenue per year. While some of the revenue will be 5 years from now, the sheet does not go out past 3 years for simplicity’s sake, even though the formula for revenue goes out 5 years. It then assigns a margin to that revenue and then deducts fixed costs of the company, which raise with revenue. This gets me to an EBITDA number to assign a multiple to, based on different landscapes in the market.
What my model does not address
*Further contract wins from FTC. This is literally just the stuff that has been announced and their current backlog. On recent calls and fireside chats, FTC seems confident that there will be additional wins. Some of which will be providing near term revenue. There is a de minimis amount of double counting in the sheet- predominantly coming from some of the Sandhills numbers. I believe that their Butler County, Nebraska project is currently in FTCs backlog. However, I decided to not slice and dice the projects out of the backlog, because I believe there are net positive signings happening at this moment that will offset that allocation in my spreadsheet. My goal with this was to make a simple sheet without a ton of variables that would reduce the accuracy of the end number. I wanted to be directionally right and precisely wrong, so to speak.
*Margins for revenue start LOWER than the company achieved last quarter, with less revenue than projected. I sandbagged margins to be conservative.
*Additional dilution. While I fully diluted shares outstanding to reflect issued warrants, I didn’t add in for additional issuance. Having tested scenarios where the share count goes up to 30m from the current 22m- shareholders will be handsomely rewarded should the company achieve the results that its current agreements and backlog indicate that it should. Dilution might not be fun, but if necessary, equity holders are still in good shape! This is even more true if revenues go above what my model suggests, via Brandt and crew delivering more contract wins.
*Backlog doesn’t address verbal commitments- which the company has previously stated were around $2B when combined with a signed backlog.
*I do not adjust for additional corporate level debt. I viewed additional debt as not huge in the grand scheme of the valuation, given that the company doesn’t burn a lot of cash.
*Net Operating Losses, depreciation, amortization, etc. The company is asset light, has NOLs, and as such, deserves a higher EBITDA multiple- potentially one that could outstrip its competitors, under the right market dynamics. EBITDA for FTC is pretty close to what its earnings should be, once things really get rolling.
Risks
Going-concern disclosure remains active. Though, I believe working capital nimbleness, coming revenue, and lending relationships mitigate this.
Revenue guidance for Q1 2026 was only $20 million to $25 million, so the year appears back-half weighted.
Covenant thresholds for revenue raise, and require further debt paydown later in 2026.
Backlog does not equal immediate revenue, and some recent announcements are not yet contracted.
Dilution risk from the ATM and the 6.8 million warrants issued to lenders. The company did use the ATM in Q4 25 to raise about $5m.
Solar project timing can still be affected by tax-equity pauses and other market frictions. The company’s clients do have legal means to stop local governments from overstepping- as happened in Butler County, Nebraska- being removed from a temporary moratorium for solar and data center installs.
Other intangibles that could help solar and FTC.
Current worry about energy security favors solar, in a world where a war with Iran can rile markets.
Growing international solar business with agreements in South Africa and international hires in India. Both South Africa and India (as well as others) are projecting large amounts of solar installations in the coming years. I expect for FTC to do incredibly well in these countries even if it takes a fraction of the overall pie.
Solar cells continue declining in price and gaining in efficiency, a side from current more practical efficiencies- we are even now able to harvest the kinetic energy from a raindrop. In aggregate, technological advancements and the like make project costs even more favorable than Lazard estimates, over time.
Battery storage continues declining in price. When you look at the economics of batteries and solar- this could be huge for the sector. Battery storage is a total game changer for the economics of the industry
Elon Musk talks about a 10 mile x 10 mile section of solar cells powering the entire country. While there are constraints that make this over simplified- it certainly shows the possibilities for solar, going forward. Growth in the industry with more and more data centers and AI seems certain.
Conclusion
FTC Solar does have risk, but it no longer looks like a story driven only by financing risk. Recent results, EPC signings (8 of the top 10), new/renewed supply agreements, and management’s own breakeven framework suggest the company may be much closer to an operating inflection than the market price implies. If backlog conversion improves in 2026 and liquidity pressure ease, the stock could rerate materially from current levels. This has been a show me story for so long and we can now literally see the story unfolding with meaningful revenue in sight over the coming months/quarters. There are not only federal tax incentives to the owners of the solar fields to support this argument, but also insider incentives to communicate to the market that the company is de-risking- which will further help them with signing new customers. A higher share price reduces the company’s cost of capital and there is every incentive in the world for the company to communicate positive developments to the market. This is a story where just a little good news can create a virtuous cycle for the stock.
Disclosure: I am long $FTCI
