I think that it is unfortunately apparent that Mark Sellers' once very enthusiastic opinion of Premier Exhibitions will likely not come to full fruition- which isn't a big deal... everyone makes mistakes. In the article (which I found through a great blog called Variant Perceptions), Sellers talked of using a DCF to get a value of $20 and the value being as much as $50 "in a few years". He also stated that he thought that the company could sell off all of it's Titanic related material for 25-50% of it's market cap, which was roughly $450 million... So, basically, he was figuring that the assets were worth $112.5mm-$225mm before the last expedition.
Moving on to today, I think that it is interesting to look at the language that the company used in it's most recent conference call (the italics and underlining are mine):
I want to be clear that our Board is committed to monetizing the Titanic assets. And we intend to do so in a tax efficient, judicious and disciplined manner, recognizing the appraise value of the artifacts and the intrinsic value of the other Titanic assets. In addition, when a transaction is completed, we do intend to direct substantially all of the net proceeds to shareholders..." -Samuel Weiser, Interim CEO, President, and Director.
It just might be that the company is trying to subtly say something to it's shareholders... Am I speculating by owning PRXI stock? To an extent, yes. However, as I have noted before, I am ok with it as a small amount of my portfolio, as the risk reward ratio seemed very intriguing to me at the time that I bought a large number of my shares (being in the $2.teens). I can't say that I'd blame anyone for sitting on the sidelines though.
As a side note, it is awesome that Sellers likes and brews good beer. The finance industry and the rest of the world could use more people like that.
As for SUPERVALU, it is no secret that the stock price continues to get pummeled on an almost daily basis... While I have gradually been buying the stock (and LEAPS) for a long enough period of time that it almost seems like I have slit my wrists on a falling knife, it perfectly illustrates to me why I don't generally like the idea of using margin, since the short term nature of stocks can be quite volatile despite this particular instance with the company's continual improvement in tangible book value. For a lot of trading institutions, margin requirements have arbitrary price rules that apply to margin maintenance requirements- check out the literature from Zecco and TDAmeritrade on the matter. Between that and the company having lost it's place in the S&P 500 I don't think it would be a stretch of the imagination for there being some further crazy fluctuations in the price due to rebalancing of funds, ETFs (there may be some more left to work out?), and even people's margin accounts getting called.
As an example of this sort of forced selling, on April 30th, the day that SVU got kicked out of the S$P 500, almost 60 million shares traded hands, whereas it generally sees volume in the single digit millions. Put another way, if the shares that got traded on that day were all unique, which, don't get me wrong, is pretty unlikely, more than a quarter of the company was traded in a single day and the price only went down by ~2%. If that isn't enough craziness, as of April 30th, 88.55mm shares were sold short. That equates to nearly 42% of all the company's shares! As a percent of float, that is approaching Sears like numbers... But, the difference here, is that SVU has a much larger float that SHLD; if you look at Sears shorted shares as a percent of shares outstanding, the percentage drops from 52.5% to 9.9%.
Then, there is the other side of this sword, where there could be glut of forced buying. It seemed like that was the direction that things were going in for a handfull of days after they last reported results that certainly weren't overly disappointing. Mr. Market had other thoughts though.
When you think about it, the whole situation is pretty mind blowing.
Regardless, low prices can be the friend of the VALU investor... get the pun? ;)
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I and various members of my family (who have some accounts that I manage) are long shares and/or options of PRXI and/or SVU. I reserve the right to change any of our positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind and is solely my own opinion. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.