Disclosure/Disclaimer: None. I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
"Losses? I think we lost our temper for a few minutes back there, but we're recovering."
Saturday, December 31, 2011
Commodities...
Disclosure/Disclaimer: None. I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
Friday, December 30, 2011
Appalachia, Dairy Farming, and Getting Stuck In Cow Manure.
Coming from a family that farmed a few generations back, there are still family members that remember what it was like to farm, as well as what it was like to not have some of the modern amenities that we take for granted- such as indoor plumbing. Take my great aunt for example, she remembers how her wedding day, she took a bath in a galvanized wash tub... If that isn't enough, the bath water was heated on the stove to provide her with a less frigid experience!
Given that there is a lot of oral history to be told, I have taken to recording it. The following story was told by my great uncle, who has been married to my previously mentioned great aunt for more than 50 years. It dates back to when he was a self described "know-it-all teenager" who more or less ran the family dairy operation. The story revolves around something that I think is really important: trying to realize what you don't know and being willing to listen for ideas, regardless of who they may come from. You never know, you might learn something that will make your life easier! This lesson is something that has served my uncle well in a lot of areas of his life, not just in his various business dealings. After all, if you can get ideas from other people, why try to re-invent the wheel? I took this to heart by more or less copying his real estate rental business, that my brother copied before me.
In this instance, listening to a near illiterate farm hand kept him from getting a tractor continuously stuck in piles of cow manure... a predicament that I would think one would wish to avoid.
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Unintended Consequences Of The Death Of Kim Jong Il.
As a side note, here is an interesting perspective on Kim Jong Il and his lifestyle, told by a former cook. It makes the decadence of all the Wall St. investment bankers look trivial (and, that is saying something!)
Disclosure/Disclaimer
Monday, December 19, 2011
Putting The AT&T/T-Mobile Breakup Into Perspective.
If you are a shareholder of T, you lost a year of gains in book value. If you look at the earnings of the company, you have lost significantly more than that.
That said, you did get a decent dividend that makes this a bit less painful.
All that for one botched acquisition.
I wonder how long the CEO will last.
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I own no financial instruments in regard to any of the companies mentioned. I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Looking Backwards At Nevada Gold's Forward Earnings...
I will say that I will try to be brief and a lot of these statements are made as "all things equal statements". I realize that there will be nuances that can come out and change things a bit; this is meant to be kept simple. Every reader needs to think about the things that I say (and, to some extent things that I won't address due to brevity issues) and come to their own conclusion as to what they deem this company to be valued at and generating in terms of cash flow/owner earnings. This is after all, just a blog! :)
Lets first take a look at some the items that hit their income statement in the recent re-positioning of the company that likely don't reflect the future of the company:
First and foremost, the company had previously stated that it was impairing the value of a piece of land that it owns to the tune of $2,273,996 dollars... This is a non-cash expense and won't re-occur to this extent.
In the quarterly filing, they also noted that they lost $154,270 dollars on the extinguishment of their debt. Again, this has been expected, as the company previously announce that it had refinanced the bulk of it's debt load with Wells Fargo and that it had negotiated a new dew date with it's senior lender, this is expense is of no surprised. Given that their due dates are now in the fall of 2014 and the summer of 2015 let's throw these fees out, as they were part of the pre-payment penalty to Fortress (see section 2.7) and don't appear to be part of the newer Wells Fargo loan package. Furthermore, they amortized $33,336 of loan issuance costs due to the more than $800K they spent to get the Well's Fargo loan package. While this will be expensed for a while, it will be a non-cash charge, as the $800K has already been shelled out; don't get me wrong, it's a lot of money but it's a small price to pay for liquidity, breathing room, and better terms.
Next, let's take a look at the Colorado Grande which the company recently announced it was selling (for what I might add, is a VERY attractive multiple). The operation apparently lost $97,924 dollars during the last quarter. As these losses shouldn't be continuing this time next year (as long as the sale goes through) so, let's that part of the loss out as well. There was also a loss on the sale of assets for the amount of $22,340 dollars; again, likely an expense that doesn't reflect the future of UWN. In the sale of the Colorado Grande, the company will be getting approximately $36,000 per quarter (before amortization of the loan) in interest on the $2.4 million dollar note. Net cash inflows will actually be greater though, as the loan does have a decent degree of amortization to it.
Now, we can look at some other items. For example, the company doesn't need to invest much money in the card rooms it owns to keep them running well (per my interview with Bob Sturges), so, we can likely add back in a good deal of the company's not insignificant depreciation. The amortization expense of intangibles last year alone was well over $1 million dollars. In fact, for 2012, the amortization of intangibles (which consist of non-compete agreements, trade names, and "customer relationships" per page 45 of the 10K) is expected to be nearly $1.15 million! Any money used to service the items are already being expensed on the income statement as advertising (in the case of a trade name) or paying your workers to do their job (having good customer relationships), so, the amortization of intangibles is something that I feel comfortable adding back in to the income statement for owner earnings. There will likely be more depreciation and amortization to come from the acquisition in Deadwood... That all gets you to a Price/Owner Earnings that is has the strong likelihood of being in the single digits.
Presently, if financial results never improve (not just in operating efficiencies, but also in what the company believes to be a temporary low hold percentage), UWN doesn't get any management contracts (such as the development with Rialto), they don't get ELSTs in Washington state, they never acquire again and wait for the amortization to run out, and a host of other reasonably likely events don't come to fruition, the company is still not expensive by any means- in fact, I would argue that it is quite cheap.
If anything positive comes out for the company, I would figure that it would likely be viewed quite favorably, especially since there has been a lot of frustration expressed over the recent sale of stock. My back of the envelope analysis indicates to me that there is a ton of growth for this company that is being given away at present prices... It will certainly be interesting to see how the market reacts to this news. While I would hate to see my present holdings of the company go down in market value, I foam from the mouth in the hopes that the Mr. Market will give me the chance to buy more of the company at $1.00 per share.
In closing, I would like to make a few statements to management of the company. 1) The evening is a great time to have a conference call, please continue to have them after market close. 2) If you can give us a little more time to read (and mainly, digest) the 10Q, that would be awesome. :) 3) Your history of really breaking up the numbers in your financial statements is quite appreciated. Please continue to do so.
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I am long shares of Nevada Gold (UWN). I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
Tuesday, December 13, 2011
Syms Is Getting Investigated.
Plus, it looks like the company may not be liquidated totally, there may be a type of reorganization- can you imagine this thing as a REIT? That might have the potential to do better than a liquidation, especially considering the types of valuations that REITs can occasionally get.
From here:
With this Motion, the Debtors seek appointment of an examiner to undertake a prompt, impartial investigation of any alleged mismanagement and breaches of fiduciary duty by the Debtors' current and former officers and directors, and others as
the examiner might determine. Such an investigation will benefit all parties in interest for at
least four reasons. First, all parties in interest will benefit from an impartial, prompt assessment
by an independent third party of whether there are any valuable officer and director claims that
might be a source of recovery for stakeholders.Second, the Debtors wish to move quickly towards formulation of a plan of reorganization or liquidation. An impartial, prompt assessment of the viability and value of such claims (if any) will be important for stakeholders in negotiating the terms of a plan....
Finally, appointment of an independent examiner should conserve estate
expenses. Because the Equity Committee and Esopus have made allegations that the Debtors'
board and management mismanaged the Debtors prior to the petition date, there is no question
that these alleged matters will be investigated. Each Committee has asserted that it should
conduct any such investigation. Accordingly, it is a foregone conclusion that estate funds must
be spent on an investigation.
Wow. This should be good stuff.
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I do not own any financial instruments in regard to any of the companies mentioned. I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
Monday, December 12, 2011
Smart and Dumb Reactions To Sardar Biglari and Cracker Barrel.
While I don't own shares of BH or CBRL, both companies have been of great interest to me for sometime. I would certainly be a lot more willing to invest in a company like CBRL if they actually seemed to care about allocating capital well. Which, as Mr. Biglari points out (in a painstakingly obvious manner, mind you: here, here, here, here, and here), they don't seem to.
If I was a shareholder of CBRL, there is no doubt that I would vote to oust a small minority of the CBRL board, which, wouldn't change the overall makeup by much, but, if history tells us anything, will greatly improve the company's intrinsic value, with the stock price likely following suite.
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I do not own any financial instruments in regard to any of the companies mentioned. I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
Wednesday, December 7, 2011
Farmer Brothers: The Coffee Stock That Was Left Behind.
Here are some of the reasons why I am happily long FARM.
Additionally, if coffee prices would fall, I would imagine that the company would be able to use sticky prices to increase it's profitability...
Disclosure/Disclaimer: I am long shares of Farmer Brothers and Syms. I do not own any other shares of the companies mentioned. I reserve the right to change any of my positions at any time. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.
Monday, December 5, 2011
Snatching Up Pay Phones...
Thanks to my uncle for telling me about this story, coming from here:
*SNIP*
"People tend to forget about pay phones, until their cellphone doesn't get a signal, until there's a natural disaster," Mr. Keane said. "We want to make sure there's a future with pay phones where Americans need them."
Mr. Keane said PTS hopes to keep most of Verizon's pay phones operating, though it will eliminate some of them, including some of Verizon's most-frequented phones on New York's underground subway platforms, where wireless signals mostly still don't reach.
The company plans to outfit other phones with touchscreens, credit-card readers or other applications. PTS views the pay phones as valuable real estate for selling temporary Internet access, advertising or for kiosks designed to market services to travelers.
Airports, truck stops, train stations and lower-income neighborhoods remain relative strongholds for pay phones. "Basically anywhere you can ring up an average of about 100 calls per month, you can be profitable," said Willard Nichols, president of the pay-phone trade group. Verizon estimates it takes 150 monthly uses for a phone to turn a profit.
Saturday, December 3, 2011
Kids Birthdays & Saving For College.
The way I figure it, rather than give a gift that will be thrown away or outgrown, I should give something that will grow with and stick with the child... It isn't like she doesn't already have a ton of toys and awesome clothes anyway. Do you really remember any of the toys that you got when you were a young child? I only remember a hand full of my favorites. Around my first birthday, I am told I was a really big fan of carrying around anything with an interesting texture (and for some reason, candles) but, have no recollection of it. The way I figure it, gifts really don't matter to a one year old and at that point, are much more about the parents and grandparents taking some nice pictures and making some good memories than anything else...
Later on in my childhood, I remember hating getting say, $50 to $200 dollar or so denominations of stock from my grandparents (a respectable, but not huge amount of money). It I didn't get T-Bills, it would be stocks such as Borg Warner, PPG, Pepsi, and Tricon- which was spun off of PEP and is now known as YUM!. However, due to the growth in the price of the shares, when it came time to buy a house, I had the down payment to buy a duplex and thus, start a business with. At that point, I realized just what I had been given. I saw the effects of compounding interest, dividends, and growth in the value of companies first hand. I also saw the various attitudes that came about from simply when a person was born...
I encourage all of my readers to think about this sort of thing and consider it when giving gifts to the young ones that they know. But enough rambling. Here is the letter that I wrote to my friends' daughter. Hopefully, she will read it when she is 10 or so and it will get her thinking:
12.03.11
Adia,
HAPPY FIRST BIRTHDAY!
Rather than get you a toy that will eventually be thrown to the wayside (much like Woody or Buzz in the “Toy Story” movies) or clothing that will be outgrown. I have somewhat selfishly elected to make an investment in your future, which evident as being quite bright.With the cost of education constantly on the rise, I hope that a meager gift of $20 dollars will be able to grow to offset a small part of your college expenses (if allocated properly, in a few decades, it might be able to buy you a semester’s worth of school supplies). While I have no idea what type of plan your parents will set up for you, I would imagine that it will be a plan along the line of a 529, but, there are many other ways to invest. I trust that they will go about choosing one that will greatly benefit your future. A calculator that I found online at http://www.archimedes.com/tiaa-cref/csp.phtml estimates that your college expenses for 4 years of schooling will be approximately $200,000 dollars! Best to get a head start on this!
It is also my hope that this will get you thinking about saving and investment at a younger age than most. Here is part of an article that examines how much money you will have under different scenarios, by saving at various points in your life:
Consider this: Amy, a 22-year-old college graduate, saves $300 per month into an account earning 10% per year for six years. (That's the average annual return of the stock market over time.) Then at age 28, she starts a family and decides to stay home with the children full time. By then, Amy had kicked in $21,600 of her own money. But even if she doesn't contribute another cent ever, her money would grow to a million bucks by the time she turned 65. Compare that to Jason, who put off saving until he was 31. He's still young enough that becoming a millionaire is within reach, but it will be tougher. Jason would have to contribute the same $300 a month for the next 34 years to earn $1 million by age 65. Although Amy invested less money out-of-pocket -- $21,600 over six years vs. Jason's $126,000 over 34 years -- her money had more time to grow, or compound. http://www.kiplinger.com/columns/starting/archive/2007/st1107.htm#ixzz1fUhtiklkWhile this example is applied to people that are roughly my and your parents age, I hope that the example serves you well at whatever point in your life that you read this letter. You are privileged to be have essentially “won” the genetic lottery: the odds of you being born in America were less than 1 in 30. The fact that you were born to loving and quite capable parents are even less. You have the whole world available to you and starting to save for college will help you in your journey, no matter what path you chose to go on.
Again, happy birthday. I wish you many more.
-Jeff
P.S. Here are some websites that might be of uses for your parents (but, are certainly not the only ones out there with decent information):https://personal.vanguard.com/us/help/FAQCollegeContent.jsp#k
http://www.fool.com/college/college04.htm
http://money.cnn.com/magazines/moneymag/money101/lesson11/index.htm
Disclosure/Disclaimer: None. I have no position in any of the securities mentioned, though, that could change at any point. This is not advice of any kind. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.