Monday, September 12, 2011

Brief Update (IBAL and UWN).

I just read International Baler's quarterly... about all I can say is: "Wow... fucking amazing."

Well, that isn't exactly all that I can say.

But in all seriousness, these results are spectacular and totally exceeded my expectations for the company. Just look at the backlog of $4.7 million. Next quarter is going to be great. With their NOLs getting ready to be eaten up (potentially, in a quarter) I won't be a bit suprised if they will be in play to be taken private by the controlling shareholder. After all, it could be done at a significant premium to today's market price, as the company has a glut of cash that could be paid out to Leland Boren; he just needs to buy under 1/2 of the shares... If the share price doubles for the buyout, then he would effectively only have to pay ~$4 million dollars, net of the cash on the balance sheet for the remaining shares. And, that is a number that doesn't include customer deposits, significant amounts of inventory, cost efficiencies of not being public, and a fair amount of accounts receivable...

Literally, the share price could double and he would be getting a good deal the company, especially with the bright future of the baling industry.

Nevada Gold (UWN) is reporting on Wednesday, and has a conference call the following day. I expect good things from them as well. They are a turnaround that makes a whole lot of sense to me and I have been desperately trying to get ahold of shares. But, alas, I am having trouble getting my orders filled.

It will be interesting to see how the market will be reacting to both IBAL and UWN. I won't be shocked if they continue to lag in their march towards intrinsic value, as I think that often, events tend to not be appreciated enough. As I have said before with UWN, right now, with last quarters run rate, you are basically buying the company for ~20x earnings. While on the face of things, this isn't exactly cheap, you are getting a company that is growing like crazy, is buying great properties that they can run efficiently, and a glut of other catalysts where, if say 2 or 3 of the many would occur, you are looking at a stock that should probably trade for multiples of what it is presently at.

And the best thing about UWN, is that everybody and their brother seems to hate them. In all the emails I have received and the many conversations that I have had 2, maybe 3 people actually agree with me on UWN. From what I can gather, the non-bulls on the stock simply don't like the previous performance of the company, or, they don't get the expansion strategy, or, the scalability of their Washington state operations. I am practically giddy at the prospects for the Red Dragon Casino that they just purchased; they now have a monopoly on casinos in the city it is located in as a result. Even with UWN at a multi year high, I still like them. In fact, I like them a lot. With that said, I can't say enough that I have no idea what will happen with the stock in the short term.

I will have some more to write about UWN on Weds/Thurs... Come back for an update. :)

Disclosure: Long IBAL and UWN. This is not advice of any kind. This is not a recommendation of any kind. I have received nothing to write/post these notes. Always do a ton of your own research in regard to anything that I say, do, write, or so much as even think about.

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

Hey Ragnar:

Who couldn't like UWN?

They are trading at a 20x P/E, but they should be making a LOT more money as time progresses....

They will also be refinancing their debt which will allow them to make a lot more $.

They will get more efficient as they integrate the newer casinos.

I don't doubt that they will be making $.15 to $.25 a share a year from now...

As you say, there are several factors that could make this stock go up by MULTIPLES. I think it is only a matter of time before slots are legalized in WA.

Time will tell.

Taylor Conant said...

Jeff,

I looked through your old posts on UWN and didn't see how you found the company originally. So, how did you find the company originally?

Going to go back and read the old UWN and IBAL posts. I like your niche of finding tiny, underflowed companies/turnarounds. I'm tired of reading about MSFT, CSCO and BBY. Time for some new tickers!

jeff said...

I honestly don't know where I found UWN (I have been following it for, gosh... 3 years?). I would guess that it was either via John at Shadowstock (who likely, would have posted on it due to the discount to book and small size, as he is a true nano-cap Ben Graham basket of stocks kind of guy- one of the smartest investors you are going to talk to) or a low p/b screen that I ran. It was interesting, I read up on it, and kept monitoring it...

Ironically, I was originally drawn to the cash and land that UWN had, but didn't buy, due to lack of clarity... Now, I don't really give a damn about the land and the cash is almost all gone (though, it was put into furthering ops, and is generating very healthy returns!); plans seem clearer than ever- at least, to me.